Özgür Arslan-Ayaydin and Inna Khagleeva
This chapter explores the geopolitical risk of Turkey’s crude oil and natural gas diversification portfolios. We use the methodology of Chaterjee (Strateg Anal 36(1):145–165, 2012) to forecast the Geopolitical Market Concentration (GMC) risk of Turkey’s diversification portfolios under worst and best case scenarios. Our analysis is based on the market shares and the political stability of
countries supplying crude oil and natural gas to Turkey. The results are robust to the choice of parameters in the double exponential smoothing method, which we
use for forecasting.
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