Geopolitical Market Concentration (GMC) Risk of Turkish Crude Oil and Natural Gas Imports

“Building bridges and forging partnerships in regional energy”

The Bosphorus Energy Club is an exclusive membership-only gathering of the key shakers and movers in the energy and geopolitical world of Eurasia, the MENA, the Gulf, and Southeast Europe. It serves as a Track-II energy diplomacy channel as well as a discreet but powerful summit of the top decision-makers for regional issues.and projects.

Özgür Arslan-Ayaydin and Inna Khagleeva

Abstract
This chapter explores the geopolitical risk of Turkey’s crude oil and natural gas diversification portfolios. We use the methodology of Chaterjee (Strateg Anal 36(1):145–165, 2012) to forecast the Geopolitical Market Concentration (GMC) risk of Turkey’s diversification portfolios under worst and best case scenarios. Our analysis is based on the market shares and the political stability of
countries supplying crude oil and natural gas to Turkey. The results are robust to the choice of parameters in the double exponential smoothing method, which we
use for forecasting.
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